Prediction and Explanation

Philosophy of Science

What is Science?

The Science Council (n.d.), a body overseeing scientific standards and practice within the UK, came up with one definition:

Science is the pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the natural and social world following a systematic methodology based on evidence.

Prediction and Explanation Schema

Hofman et al. (2021)’s 2x2:

No intervention or distributional changes Under interventions or distributional changes
Focus on specific features or effects Descriptive modelling (1) Explanatory modelling (2)
Focus on predicting outcomes Predictive modelling (3) Integrative modelling (4)

Suggestions

Granularity Descriptive modelling Explanatory modelling Predictive modelling Integrative modelling
Describes something Tests a causal claim Tests a (passive) predictive claim Tests a claim both for causality and predictive accuracy
Low Reports stylized facts Tests for a non-zero effect Predicts directional or aggregate outcomes Predicts directional or aggregate outcomes under changes or interventions
Medium Reports population averages Tests for a directional effect Predicts magnitude and direction of aggregate outcomes Predicts magnitude and direction of aggregate outcomes under changes or interventions
High Reports individual outcomes Estimates the magnitude and direction of an effect Predicts magnitude and direction of individual outcomes Predicts magnitude and direction of individual outcomes under changes or interventions

References

Hofman, Jake M., Duncan J. Watts, Susan Athey, Filiz Garip, Thomas L. Griffiths, Jon Kleinberg, Helen Margetts, et al. 2021. “Integrating Explanation and Prediction in Computational Social Science.” Nature 595 (7866): 181–88. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03659-0.
The Science Council. n.d. “Our Definition of Science.” The Science Council. https://sciencecouncil.org/about-science/our-definition-of-science/. Accessed November 22, 2023.